The Walmart NWA Championship Bets Recap- Austin Ernst Extends American Dominance

Top 10

1) Austin Ernst (-20) (+6000)

2) Anna Nordqvist (-18) (+7500)

T3) Angela Stanford (-16) (+20000)

T3) Nelly Korda (-16) (+2000)

T5) Jenny Shin (-15) (+15000)

T5) Sei Young Kim (-15) (+1200)

T7) Inbee Park (-14) (+1200)

T7) Katherine Kirk (-14) (+20000)

T9) Linnea Strom (-13) (+60000)

T9) Kristy McPherson (-13) (+250000)

Picks:

Inbee Park at 7.5 units (+2000)- T7

Nelly Korda at 5 units (+2200)- T3

Brittany Altomare at 5 units (+2800)- MC

Amy Yang at 5 units (+4500)- MC

Kristen Gillman at 2.5 units (+12500)- MC

Total Units Won: 82.5

Total Units Bet: 125

ROI on the season: -33.3%

Market Inefficiencies Identified: Ability to Make Birdies, Not Playing Five Consecutive Weeks

The 2017 US Solheim Cup team, stand up! A market inefficiency I've clearly missed out on identifying is playing for Team USA in 2017. Since the restart post-pandemic, four Americans have won that all represented the United States in Des Moines. Austin Ernst won her first event in 145 starts and did it in prolific birdie making style. She posted 10 birdies, and her putter was chirping Sunday with all the birdies it produced.

This didn't come out of nowhere. At the AIG Women's Open last week, Ernst finished in 5th place.

Angela Stanford is a 2021 US Solheim Cup vice-captain, and a front-row seat to Ernst's performance today. It was her best finish since winning the Evian Championship in 2018.

Anna Nordqvist nearly threw out my second market inefficiency, of not playing five consecutive weeks. She had made starts in every event since the restart. There was no mention of exhaustion in her post-round interview today, but she came up short after holding a three-shot lead coming into today. Wildly speculative, but most players on the LPGA Tour who have strong status like Nordqvist does, aim to pick their schedule to avoid playing five weeks in a row.

It may have been worthwhile to take some more wildcard rolls on higher odds based on the results this week. Lower scores lead to high variance, which is why we're seeing such a variety of odds in the top 10.

Sei Young Kim has been on absolute fire, but it was tough to pick her based on the fact she hadn't played tournament golf since July 13th on the KLPGA. Of the players in the field, she had the 3rd highest average birdies per round in 2019, trailing Amy Yang and Nelly Korda.

I'm not going to be surprised if Korda's odds get slashed to 10-1 or 12-1 at the ANA Inspiration after this week. She's been hovering around that most of the year.

Kristy McPherson's plus two hundred and fifty thousand would've been incredible value if top 10 bets were available. This week was her first made cut since 2015, and her first top 10 since October 2010.

Brittany Altomare can write into the column for jinxing her on her consecutive made cuts streak. She had made 39 consecutive ones before this week. That was the most shocking result.

The Tour, after five weeks in a row, has a break before the ANA Inspiration starting September 10th. I'll be back then with five picks that week.